Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,246$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(507 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,202.0}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,202.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $103$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(17.8 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $48$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $40,803$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,401.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 62.3)}}\) (asimptote \(41,401.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,542$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(498 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,448.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,448.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,261$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,477$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,157.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,157.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $237$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(62 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231.3}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(231.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $513$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,911$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(978 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,886.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 48.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,886.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $321$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(52.6 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{315.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 35.2)}}\) (asimptote \(315.7\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,090$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,971$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,713.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(11,713.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $580$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(131 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{564.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 32.2)}}\) (asimptote \(564.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $641$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,806$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(606 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.8}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.8\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.94 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.1}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $58,685$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,796.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(56,796.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,522$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,206.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,206.6\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,204$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $281,270$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.88 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280,685.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(280,685.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $39,811$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(5.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,873.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(37,873.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $240,247$ on 2020-06-03
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $233,836$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(4.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227,649.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(227,649.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,601$ on 2020-06-03
Best fit exponential: \(5.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,551.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(32,551.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,297$ on 2020-06-03
